16 Comments
Dec 31, 2023Liked by Inquisitive Bird

Super informative. Thank you!

Expand full comment

This is a great article, but you need to dedicate more time to racial differential in homicide rates. In particular, if US black and Latino murder rates were the same as US white murder rates, then the United States would have similar murder rates as our economic peer nations, even though whites own more guns per capita than black folks or Latinos.

https://hwfo.substack.com/p/real-talk-about-race-and-murder-rates

Expand full comment

What I'm wondering is how much of that fall in the homicide rate from the 1990s to 2015 was due to emergency rooms getting much, much better at saving people's lives, including bullet wounds (and thus, not becoming a statistic). I've heard that much of the decline in homicide rates in recent years is due to this factor alone. I have no way to verify this, but I'm wondering if anyone has looked at the issue and tried to adjust for it in the statistics, or if it's just invisible.

Expand full comment

Comparing homicide rates, not by economic tier but by geographic region, has some interesting insights as well.

Expand full comment

Excellent data compilation, thank you for putting all this together.

I am not really sure how to parse this portion: "Many homicides were precipitated by another crime (22.9%), and the crime was in progress in 66.0% of those cases. The most common precipitated crimes were assault/homicide (38.9%),"

What does it mean that a homicide was precipitated by a homicide? Was it a different homicide target and the homicide in question was ancillary to the main target?

Expand full comment

Are parole violations included in that Recidivism chart? 80% getting arrested again is WILD

Expand full comment

Good overview, but you use homicide rate as the violent crime rate in the US, and there are some studies that say that both the overall crime rate and the violent crime rate minus homicide is lower in the US than in much of Western Europe, or at least had been lower in the 2000s, and that the US homicide is an outlier. Here: https://sci-hub.ru/10.1111/j.1468-0327.2011.00267.x

Expand full comment

The answer people don't want, America has been the dumping ground for undesirables, is obvious.

Expand full comment